Lebanon: Is A New Civil War Imminent?

You don’t need to be a political analyst—and definitely not a clairvoyant—in order to “foretell” that Lebanon is moving into a major political and economic crisis. The reason I say “major” is because this country has been in a never-ending crisis. However, current events have escalated the seriousness of the situation to a point where everybody is afraid of an armed conflict taking place (for a brief overview of the current situation in Lebanon, you can refer to any of these articles: Political chaos in Lebanon ravages economy, instills fear — Amid opposition pressure, Hariri not backing down — Lebanon tightens security as political crisis deepens).

Diplomatic activity in the upcoming few days is key to the avoidance of a civil war. Neither party is showing signs of concession to where the opposing group currently stands. Even more, both parties are using the media as a means to shift public support to their own favor.

The propaganda being employed has reached a level of seriousness never experienced before by the Lebanese public. A couple of days ago, New TV, a Lebanese TV channel, aired two extremely controversial reports, intended to expose ex-Prime Minister Hariri (At the end of the article are the YouTube clips of the reports. the first video is an audio recording in English with Arabic subtitles; the second is in only in Arabic).

On the other side, another serious event took place on Tuesday. Non-armed combatant of one of the opposing parties—Hizbullah—swarmed the streets of Beirut in a “show of force” (as The Daily Star calls it) . In just two hours, they were able to assemble in strategic locations and then disperse as quickly as they gathered; their intention was to show the other party that they are willing to use force in case things did not go as they please.

Every day, we watch a press conference by a certain representative of one of the two parties, attacking the opponent “team”. Unfortunately, the political discourse between our politicians has become a mockery. We, as Lebanese citizens, are witnessing the whole Lebanese media being transformed into a virtual battlefield, where the two opposing forces haven’t yet engaged in an actual armed conflict; however, through their use of political propaganda, they are both kicking the hornets’ nest.

So again I tell you, I am not a political analyst nor a fortune teller; however, I am strongly pessimistic when it comes to our political situation. In the end, it makes me sad to say I am almost certain that the current “cold war”, which has been crippling the country for so many years, and which is now being escalated, will soon turn into a real armed confrontation: a new civil war!

Part 2 – Part 3

(Image sources: Photo of Joubran Bassil: forum.tayyar.org/ — Photo of Saad al Hariri: NowLebanon.com)